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That was a maiden hurdle which he won by 19 lengths, beating little of consequence. He looks to have a good bit to find, though it’s possible that he will locate at least some of the form deficit with Ballyburn for his ultra-shrewd owner, Tony Bloom (pictured above). Once you’ve made your selection, click the odds button in line with your horse and a window will appear showing the best bookmakers in the industry to provide you with a choice of where to back it.
Cheltenham Festival 2024: Day Two Preview, Trends, Tips
LH – Thyme Hill form awful, the time was “glacial” 😆 Rain might be important for Gerri Colombe. Without rain, not sure he’ll enjoy downhill sections of the track. MT – Would love to own Hermes Allen, but wouldn’t run him in this race!
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If any horse can stop State Man’s procession to glory it might be Irish Point, in the Robcour colours and trained by Gordon Elliott. This time last year, while State Man was getting closest to Constitution Hill, Irish Point was winning a Grade 3 novice hurdle at Naas. He’s since won the 2m4f Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ at Aintree, and then this season he’s added a Grade 3 at Down Royal and the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown. But that Leopardstown race is contested over almost three miles and, as the name suggests, it was contested at the end of last year. It was a terrifically convincing score there but in a slow time beating (relatively) slow horses. I don’t see how that makes him second pick for a Champion Hurdle.
Ayr Gold Cup Jockey Statistics
Conditions were pretty terrible that day which wouldn’t have suited Teddy Blue at all so it was no real surprise, especially given the amount of energy he’d wasted early on, that he’d effectively shot his bolt by the third-last. He has few miles on the clock and was much improved when second at Wolverhampton last time. The best tipsGet the very best advice direct from the horse’s mouth via our expert tips page, featuring free tips as well as exclusive advice from some of the best judges in the business. The racecardsFind out more about the daily races, upcoming events and big-race entries via our cards page.
- Although it’s only a small chink in his profile it does give us some hope that we can get one of these Mullins hotpots beaten.
- A place strike rate of 36% is more compelling, and a majority of runners have performed at least close to market expectation.
- Going a step further, I’d favour run style over draw in certain scenarios which I’ll come on to.
- IMPERVIOUS holds strong credentials to land the Grade 2 Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase at 4.50.
- Matata is one of the pace angles in the field and that may see him do too much too soon, whereas Jpr One tends to be handy but off the speed.
- All of the last 14 winners had raced 6-16 times under rules in their career.
- The reason for that was his destruction of a solid-looking Supreme Novices’ Hurdle field in the 2022 curtain raiser, where he easily despatched Jonbon et al in a very fast time.
LATEST HORSE RACING RESULTS
It was a fourth Champion Chase for Henderson since Finian’s Rainbow broke his duck in the race in 2012 and his 60th winner in all at the meeting. Horses of a lifetime, it seems, are like London buses for the trainer these days and if he becomes the first trainer to win Cheltenham’s big three races in the Gold Cup on Friday, Might Bite might be considered another. A lot more returns and respective debuts throughout the week before we got to the season openers at Cheltenham and Aintree. After all the hard work there was just the one bet for us which was successful. It can be seen as frustrating to have put in all that work but also rewarding in the long term to have amassed a great deal of valuable future information.
30 Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m5f)
He’s won his last four starts, all Grade 1’s, by 12L, 22L, 12L, and 17L – and had won his previous start by 14L. His speed figures are just about off the scale and he can take a position wherever in the field meaning tactics are not a worry. Given he’s normally an excellent jumper, there are essentially no holes in Constitution Hill’s profile whatsoever and he’s a very worthy odds-on favourite. The Supreme is sometimes won by a clear cut favourite – think Appreciate It or Douvan – but, more often than not, the waters are muddier and the multiple returned for finding the winner more appealing. This year falls into the latter bracket, and surely bookies all over the country will be desperately trying to ‘get’ Facile Vega.
Presenting Percy goes off as favourite in the 2.10
To frame this year’s expectation, we need to look backwards. Below is the same information but with the key metrics ranked, e.g. Mullins’ 2020 Festival win percentage was his second best of the past five Festivals; it was his best of five Festivals on each of EW%, PRB, IV, and A/E. So we’ll use IV, PRB and A/E as way points to navigate to a conclusion; but against which period(s) should we measure performance?
Robin Goodfellow’s racing tips: Best bets for Wednesday, April 20
Just a slight cause for concern was the poor performances of Nicky Henderson’s runners yesterday. Since the early days, horse racing has grown from royal entertainment into big business. For most bookies, it remains their bread and butter, alongside football and tennis as the most popularly wagered sports. So you’ve done the legwork, found the perfect horse racing bookmaker, but now what? Well, it’s time to lay down a bet, and it really couldn’t be easier.
- He jumped very well at Warwick in the Grade 2 Kingmaker last time but, prior to that, had put in the odd clumsy one.
- The Goffer won a Grade A handicap chase at Leopardstown last time off a mark of 138.
- And with Enable making her long-awaited return in the Coral-Eclipse on Sunday, the stage is set for a sporting showdown to savour.
- Yesterday’s blog underlined why having a clear line on true value is so important in successful long term professional backing.
- Below is the same information but with the key metrics ranked, e.g.
- A maximum field of 24 horses are set to compete in this year’s renewal.
- Weights will vary if this race is a handicap – these are races in which horses are weighted according to their past performances – but in non-handicaps most horses will carry the same.
Cheltenham Festival 2021: Trainer Form
The Coral-Eclipse looks a one-way Enable fest now that Lord North is out of the race so I’m going elsewhere on the Sandown card on Sunday. O’Brien’s exciting colt produced a massive performance in the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot, flying home with a withering late run to topple some well-regarded prospects. And with Enable making her long-awaited return in the Coral-Eclipse on Sunday, the stage is set for a sporting showdown to savour. He has shown his best here and went close over course and distance last time out.
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Ontheropes is a slight rarity in that he’s a Cheveley Park Stud entry, and trained by Willie Mullins, that is not favourite. He has had plenty of experience, however, which is definitely the way to go in the National Hunt Chase, and breeding suggests this trip is within range. The form of his fourth in the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury in the autumn is strong and if quicker ground ekes out a pound or two, he could cause a minor surprise. He’s undeniably well treated, then, but hitting a serious flat spot on heavy ground doesn’t translate brilliantly to the rough and tumble of a fast ground 22-runner charge across Cleeve Hill.
Cheltenham Gold Cup 2022 Preview, Trends, Tips
She should have plenty more to come over this trip and, unlike the favourite, we know for certain that she’ll stay. In the possibly the most open Derby in recent memory, you can give a chance to almost all the runners. He finished off strongly when fourth at Wolverhampton on his latest start. MAHLER MISSION has been kept fresh since a fine second in the Coral Gold Cup last Autumn.
Robin Goodfellow’s racing tips: Best bets for Thursday, April 21
Each way is not an option in a seven-runner race generally, still less with such a domineering jolly; but ‘without the favourite’ is a way in. That market has its own shortie, too, in State Man but I feel Vauban ‘without’ is a credible alternative given how the race is likely to pan out. If State Man and Constitution Hill have at it from far enough out, it’s possible that SM cracks; Vauban wasn’t far behind him in steadily enough run G1’s in Ireland and can come through for silver. The first chase of the week is a speed test for novices, and frequently advertises the claims of a potential Champion Chaser of the near future.
Sent off 10/3 favourite for the November edition, he was never put into the race; but he did run a little better in the October variant, finishing a place and four lengths behind Minella Indo. This has obviously been the plan all season but I’m not at all sure he can bring his A game when water wings are needed. There is little doubt in anyone’s mind that, prior to the 2024 Cheltenham Festival, Ballyburn brings the best novice form.
True, he was well seen off by Marie’s Rock in the Relkeel, though that was over an extra half mile; and he was no match for State Man in the County a year ago. He has some impressive performances to his name, most of them on genuine good ground, but I can’t quite shake that County clunk from my memory banks. Kilbeg King got low at several of his fences at Ascot but still stayed on dourly at the end to force the winner to pull out all the stops. On that cheerful note, let’s dive into the latest renewal, with just the seven runners meaning there’s no point looking for an each-way angle into the race. All seven of the runners have a chance and the first thing I want to say is that the old advice that Derek O’Connor’s mount already has a 5lb advantage is not to be believed.
Patrick Mullins
Last year’s runner-up Popmaster is a big price and United Approach can reward each-way backers. Five-time Irish champion Colin Keane takes the ride and that is a huge plus. Last year’s impressive winner Inspiral is a class act but it’s hard to have any confidence in her given she has blown the start on her last three runs.
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It probably makes sense to compare a longer period pre-Cheltenham with a shorter period pre-Cheltenham with performance at the Festival itself. Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) is a means of applying a sliding scale of merit to every finishing position, and doing it in relation to the field size in which that finish was achieved. For instance, 2nd of four has less merit on this metric than 2nd of 40 – and rightly so, of course. Sizing John in 2017 was trying a longer trip and was ridden accordingly, with patience.
Indefatigable looks like getting her optimal conditions for the first time in a while and may be over-priced for hail mary each way players. Mrs Milner, like Heaven Help Us, was a handicap hurdle winner at last year’s Festival, her score coming in the three mile Pertemps Final. This is a different test, more about speed than stamina, though she had the gears to win a couple of lower grade two mile hurdles earlier in her career. Related, and perhaps more remarkable, is that the last five favourites in the race – all of them short – were turned over. In spite of the small field the Supreme remains a competitive race with five horses at single figure prices. They are headed by inmates of the unofficial Prestbury Cup team captains Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins and, more pertinently, their A and B players, Constitution Hill and Jonbon (NJH) and Dysart Dynamo and Kilcruit (WPM).
Like all humans, trainers are creatures of habit, so get to know theirs. Some will have really good records at certain tracks and really poor records at others. Some will have regular quiet spells at particular times of the year and other spells when the winners readily flow.
This has presumably been the target for Paul Hennessy’s charge; he also owns and bred her. Of the others on the shortlist, Does He Know’s trainer, Kim Bailey, has had a winner (in 1999) and two places from four Ultima starters, including last year’s second, Happygolucky. And Tea Clipper is interesting with first time cheekpieces and first run after a wind operation. He was no match for Bravemansgame in the Grade 1 Kauto Star (Feltham as was) but this will be more his cup of, well, you know. Full Back won at the New Year’s Day fixture and was probably looked after a little at Taunton in his only race since.
What really puts me off Harper’s Brook is his record at Cheltenham where he has raced four times without beating a single rival. I’ll be mildly surprised if he finishes the race and stunned, I tell you, STUNNED if he manages to win. I will have to lie down in a dark corner for quite a long time, in fact. He improved again when fourth in the aforementioned Betfair Hurdle last time, not getting the best of luck in the run but staying on strongly after the last and looking for all the world like a step back up in trip would suit.
- If State Man and Constitution Hill have at it from far enough out, it’s possible that SM cracks; Vauban wasn’t far behind him in steadily enough run G1’s in Ireland and can come through for silver.
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- “Dropping in with plenty of runners is what he needs and he hasn’t had that yet this year.
- Mr Vango is a forward goer, so too Apple Away; but the small field means they’ll likely be steady away over this extended trip.
- Lousy puns aside, he won his beginners’ chase in a canter before being merely pushed out to record a pair of Grade 1 successes in recognised trials, by three lengths and then eleven lengths from the talented Latest Exhibition.
- Many new sites that launch will want to do so with a bang, and will offer deals that they might not be in the position to offer when they are more well-established.
- It’s designed to give you an easy guide to today’s racing fixtures.
That race tempo looks a reasonable fit against today’s likely setup and, what’s more, the horse in question, Tropez Power, won it – over today’s course and distance and in today’s class. He’s a dual winner from four starts on all-weather and, in between those wins, he again showed good acceleration to close from 3 3/4 lengths behind to a length behind at the line in another similarly run race. No, the job here is to look at how the percentages within a going column change based on the number of previous wins on that going. This rises to a bit more than 12% for those with a single prior win on good ground and hovers around the same figure for runners who have twice won previously on good; it then drops a notable bit for triple good scorers. This doesn’t just work on all-weather or on turning tracks, by the way. Both Newmarket courses, for example, offer great advantage to front-runners over most trips up to about nine furlongs.
- Azzerti is a best price 12/1 at present, which looks a bit of value.
- She was picking up again at the line, and appeals to me as the sort to relish a thorough test of stamina.
- Just a few taps on a smartphone can replace trudging down to the high street betting shop, or even placing a wager with a bookmaker trackside.
- He stays well, has class and is proven at the track and the Festival.
- A few positions on shorties at fancier prices, for all that the spectre of our picks winning but not by far enough looms, may help to wile the worst of these remaining Covid days.
- The former has his trainer’s long term Supreme record very much in his favour, but his trainer’s recent form very much not.
- Nor, mind you, has the win percentage been anything other than aspirational for most other yards.
- “At Doncaster and Sandown he maybe had to run to the level he showed last year to win them, but I think even with defeat in the Lockinge, his run told us he was a Group One horse and today confirmed it.
- Sent off 10/3 favourite for the November edition, he was never put into the race; but he did run a little better in the October variant, finishing a place and four lengths behind Minella Indo.
If the ground dries out, it might be that connections of Honeysuckle decide to run over this two-and-a-half mile trip rather than the extended two of the Champion Hurdle. The hallmark of those runs, and indeed her run style generally, is being held together off the pace before cruising through to prevail comfortably. In so doing it is hard to peg the level of her form exactly, always leaving the impression there is more in the tank. Lightly raced, as is often the modus operandi with Willie Mullins’ better mares, Concertista has run just twice this term. She beat the same mare, Minella Melody, by nearly two lengths in a Grade 2 in November and then by more than six lengths in a Grade 3 at the turn of the year.
- Evaluating the track record of tipsters at prestigious events like Royal Ascot can provide insights into their expertise and reliability.
- Firefox has also led in two of his last three, likewise Tellherthename.
- Expert insights can offer valuable perspectives on a horse’s form, recent performances, and potential for success.
- They actually don’t run many – just three darts this year – and I’ll be fielding against them, perhaps carelessly.
- A story that began in 1924, the Gold Cup has since mushroomed to become one of the world’s most renowned steeplechases.
- English King was impressive at Lingfield last time, Kameko is a Guineas winner who needs to show he has the required stamina and Aidan O’Brien’s battalion are all capable of big improvement.
- The pair have formed a formidable team this season and should be thereabouts.
- HUNTERS YARN is the clear pick for the handler, arriving for this handicap debut after an effortless Listed Hurdle success at Navan last month.
Both the jump and Flat trainers’ championships run at the same time as the jockeys’ championships. However, there is a major difference in how the winner is determined as the trainers’ championship is decided by total prize-money rather than winners. In our new introduction to racing our experts have collated the most essential information to help you understand and enjoy this brilliant sport, including how to pick a winner, four must-know facts and how to watch the action. He has gone close a few times in these big handicaps and if his top rider can smuggle him through then he has every chance. Qirat is a worthy favourite having won a hot contest at Goodwood with a bit up his sleeve.
I thought he was very impressive that day at Cork and with this race being in similar conditions I’m expecting a similar performance. It was disappointing to see him beaten at odds-on last time out at Clonmel but it looked a tactical small field race off a steady pace which wouldn’t have suited him, and I think he was done for a bit of toe up the straight. The Mare’s Chase is being billed as a match this year and while I do think both Allegoire De Vassy and Imprevious are brilliant mares, I think the market has overlooked MAGIC DAZE.
We work with the belief that every race and every meeting is important, so we’ll give exactly the same coverage to a Monday night meeting at Windsor or an ITV Racing covered race at Newmarket. I still think a mark of 67 somewhat underestimates BRAZEN BOLT and back over this track and trip he looks to have plenty going for him. He travelled notably well before winning convincingly on penultimate start and I can see a similar scenario panning out here.
Back From Dubai had some Class 6 questions to answer but this 0-55 required very little winning. 9/4 was hardly rock n’ roll but he was against quantity rather than quality opposition, even Bolts Up Daily allowing for the grade. Another deep race with plenty of experienced campaigners making their seasonal returns. Whilst the race is open on paper, it may be worth chancing WINDSOR AVENUE.